With Taiwan, Reading Between The Lines Is Not Necessary

From the AP via Kentucky.com:

Taiwan is hailing its most advanced missile as "an aircraft carrier killer" on the same day that China began sea trials of it first aircraft carrier.

No further explanation is really required, is it?

From The “No job is impossible for the man who doesn’t have to do it” Files

Today’s contribution to the “no job is impossible for the man who doesn’t have to do it” files comes from David Axe.

The site is The Diplomat; the article is The Limits of China’s Fighters.

The story is focused on the Chinese J-15.  The background:

While outside observers have strongly suspected for several years that China intended to deploy the J-15 – an adaptation of the Russian Su-33 – aboard the PLAN’s first aircraft carrier Shi Lang, Chinese officials didn’t confirm it until last week.

(Snip)

It’s clearer than ever that the J-15 will inherit most of the Su-33’s limitations, particularly with regard to payload and range. As a result, Shi Lang could be highly vulnerable to foreign naval forces in combat.

The PLAN, not to be confused with The SITUATION, is the Peoples’ Liberation Army Navy (OK, it’s kind of weird, but maybe something gets lost in translation?). 

Now as to the assertion that the carrier based J-15 could be vulnerable: it could well be true.  That is, unless the space-enabled Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile program first renders foreign (read U.S.) naval forces highly vulnerable themselves.  

Where Are The Arms Controllers On Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles?

China's DF-21

As you might imagine, China is not a party to The Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, which is better known as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

INF does not allow the U.S. or Russia to field either nuclear or conventional ground launched ballistic or land attack cruise missiles with intermediate ranges.  Intermediate ranges are treaty-defined as 500 to 5,500km.

As such, China is treaty unconstrained in the development of whatever sorts of weapons they think will serve their needs, to include the approximately 1600 ballistic missiles they have aimed at Taiwan.  Such freedom of action also allows China to develop an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) capability while the INF treaty prohibits both Russia and the U.S. from creating such a capacity.

Now, given all the angst and gnashing of teeth regarding the New START treaty, you would think there’d be more noise–actually some noise–from the arms control community regarding China’s emergent ASBM capability, which the U.S. and Russia have decided to forego.  China’s ASBM has been described as the ‘carrier killer’ and is thought to be nearly or perhaps already operational.

So, with New START still pending Senate action, the arms controllers and ‘international institution’ communities seem curiously mute and non-multi-tasking on the serious issue of Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles.

China wants to be a player, but players have to…well, they have to play.  ASBMs aren’t playing.