Archive for the ‘Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program’ Category

Time relays some more chatter/balloon floating regarding military strikes against Iran.

Different tunes are not quite being sung yet…but they are being hummed.

The Iran options are all bad, but the current approach is clearly not working. That’s what happens when you are dealing with a very serious and determined adversary.  Plus, Iran has cover from China, Russia, Brazil, and Turkey, who aren’t quite sponsors, but who clearly have different interests than the U.S. and our gulf region allies.

Still, it seems unlikely U.S. leadership or direct action against Iran is likely given the current leadership team and environment.  The people of Iran may be divided regarding their own leadership, but there’s nothing like a war to bring them together.

The idea of preventive efforts to keep Iran from getting to this point would be viewed in hindsight as brilliant.  Of course, that option was politically neutered with the 2007 NIE.

Perhaps the Israelis have it right–go in, bust up the stuff as best you can, get out, and repeat as required.

An interesting turn of events.

Shahram Amiri, the missing Iranian nuclear scientist, was probably some sort of double agent and the U.S. figured it out.  Basically, Amiri would have first given himself over to U.S. agents through the Saudis while posing as a nuclear scientist seeking a way out of Iran.

In reality, he would be an Iranian plant who was really trying to discover the depth and breadth of U.S. knowledge of Iran’s nuclear program and additionally, in attempting to deceive U.S. spies, scientists, and analysts with disinformation.

He or his Iranian handlers must have figured the jig was up.

Some tie-in with the Russians may be there as well.

Am I sounding too much like Warren Zevon?  If so, send lawyers, guns, and money via PayPal.

Iran.  The UN.  Sanctions. Vietnam.  Gradual escalation.

Will the fourth time be the charm?  No.  Iran is too determined and capable. Also, they have too much cover for sanctions to have their desired effect.

What’s the saying?  Something like ‘insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.’

Does this make us insane?  No, but if we think this will cause Iran to give up their nuclear program, our assessments are…detached.