SBIRS Geo-1 Ready for its Close-up

Space poster-child SBIRS Geo-1 is set to launch tomorrow, Friday 6 May.  The weather doesn’t look that great and but is forecast to be better on Saturday.

SBIRS on line in ’99!

Note: 2011 focused SBIRS bumper stickers will be accepted for consideration.

I thought I read somewhere it won’t be FOC for about 15-18 months after launch, sometime in the fall of 2012.

Assuming I’m not misremembering, that’s some serious check out.

Russian Full-Court Arms Control Press

The Russians: decimated by demographics; people poisoned by polonium; maddened by missile defense.

As reported by GSN, a statement attributed to Russian Ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin on the so-called European missile defense initiative, AKA the phased adaptive approach.

On the whole, I can say that the main problem remains unsolved. It is the problem of sane, coherent and verifiable guarantees that the American system of missile defense that would be deployed in Europe would not target the Russian strategic potential.

So sane, coherent, and verifiable is preferred to insane, incoherent, and unverifiable?  Gotcha. 

Of course Rogozin wants to self-define sane, coherent, and verifiable.  While it’s possible his definitions (basically, anything that is beneficial to Russia) may meet yours, it’s also quite possible your results may vary.

So what’s a good Russian to do?  How about some strategic saber-rattling?

Russia would deploy the new heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2018 to replace the world’s most powerful Voevoda (NATO code name Satan) ICBM, Interfax news agency reported on Thursday.

The missile, which is to be produced in the Urals’ town of Miass, would be a completely new rocket and not just a clone of the Voevoda, former head of Russian Strategic Forces, General Colonel Victor Yesin said.

According to the general, the missile of the fifth generation will be capable to reliably get over any anti-missile defense shield, including the space-based one.

I think I see a pattern here.  The reality is that Russia is terrified of missile defense. 

First, Russia tries to treaty-link arms control (New START and anything else that will be proposed) to missile defense.  Next, they scream to be a “partner” in a missile defense system with kill-switch/veto authority.  Third, they threaten to deploy more warheads and delivery systems unless they get their way on missile defense.  Finally, they trot out a man wearing a uniform to announce a magical and nonsensical paper rocket which they will perhaps be willing to not put into production in order to extract the missile defense concessions Russia really wants.

Sad, ain’t it?

The Efficacy of International Institutions

The NYT reports on North Korea’s prisoner camp gulag.

I’m sure Dear Leader is reviewing his metrics, perhaps as we speak: he’s estimated to hold over 200,000 political prisoners.

From space, the camps are clearly visible and growing.  The reaction?

“For decades, the [North Korean]authorities have refused to admit to the existence of mass political prison camps. These are places out of sight of the rest of the world.” The report says that almost all of the human rights protections that international law has tried to set up for the past 60 years “are ignored.”  

Such a statement reflects what a bad actor (full of resolve, backed by China, and possessing nuclear weapons) can do regardless of the rule of law, international pressure and sanctions, and/or the presence of Jimmy Carter.

New Arms Control Sheriff In Town?

As reported by Inside the Ring:

Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher, who has been leading U.S.-Russian missile defense talks that are largely kept secret from Congress and the public, was given a demotion of sorts, Inside the Ring was told by a senior U.S. national security official.

Well, if report is true, why would she be demoted?

Mrs. Tauscher, a former Democratic congresswoman from California, has annoyed colleagues and critics with her abrasive style.

OK, annoying colleagues and critics with an abrasive style is a bad thing.  A worse thing is when the negotiations aren’t thought to advance U.S. national security.

Word from the Pentagon is that Mrs. Tauscher is no longer the lead Obama administration official for the U.S.-Russian talks on missile defenses, which the administration has been holding with Moscow and working toward what critics on Capitol Hill have said is the questionable goal of concluding a technology-sharing agreement with Russia.

Instead, the Pentagon’s Jim Miller, principal deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, is now the key negotiator, even though Mrs. Tauscher technically will be in charge overall.

Alexander Haig was also famously in charge after President Reagan was shot.

Read about the Defense Technology Cooperation Agreement (the aforementioned technology “sharing”) here.