The Biggest Trust Me Card Ever?

Posted: August 20, 2010 in Uncategorized
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There’s been a great deal of chatter recently regarding possible Israeli and even U.S. military actions against Iran.  Perhaps as a result, the administration is now telling Israel that Iran still remains roughly a year away from getting the bomb.

Of course much could change in a year.  Here are a few possible ways:

  • Political uncertainty. Other regional players, but most importantly, Saudi Arabia could decide to ally themselves with Iran.
  • Technological uncertainty.  Iran could be further ahead than thought, have more capabilities than revealed/discovered, or could overcome the issues holding them back.
  • Military uncertainty.  A war with Hezbollah could prompt Israel to revise their timeline.
  • Defensive uncertainty.  Russia could sell Iran the more-modern air defenses the Iranians so desire.

It is certain we can’t predict the future and it’s almost as certain that we lack true insight into the state of development of Iran’s covert nuclear weapons program.

Israel’s actions are likely to be less predictable than they’ve historically been if they feel action is required to address an existential threat.

The Goldberg article at the Atlantic lays the situation out accurately and with plenty of differing opinions.

There are many ways in which this might unfold and someone’s speculation, like filling out the entire NCAA bracket correctly, is likely to be contained in the Goldberg piece.

Finally, it’s likely Iran is trying to synchronize their nuclear weapons delivery systems with their nuclear bomb development.  Having a nuke without a way of getting it to its target makes little sense.  As such, it’s even possible the missile is holding up the bomb.


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