Can You Take Calls For Nuclear Disarmament Seriously Without Serious Arguments?

Seriously?

The article Taking disarmament seriously, as with many arms control advocacy pieces, presumes what it sets out to prove.

That doesn’t work for me.  I can’t take disarmament arguments seriously without serious arguments.  Arms controllers tend to be full of “we gotta” while ignoring the “and here’s how we’re gonna” part.

So in the “we gotta” regard, the article attempts to build a sense of crisis regarding nuclear war while attributing the lack of nuclear war to luck, which, sans evidence, is a hard thing to do.  The “we gotta” also always assumes the efficacy of arms control treaties.

Former Dictator Not Dead Yet

Fidel Castro, once Cuba’s chief judge, jury, and executioner, made an appearance on Cuban television.

Was it real or was it avatarded?  It was real, but does it matter?

Castro pontificated on the middle east, nuclear war, and the United States. His intent was likely to show that he’s not dead yet and to support his fellow travelers in Iran and North Korea.

Where’s the International Criminal Court when you need it?  Probably out writing parking tickets or eating donuts.

Nixon Planned Nuclear Strike On North Korea

The Telegraph says that President Nixon planned a nuclear strike on North Korea in 1969.

Big deal.  The United States has planned for nuclear war with our adversaries since 1945…and I am willing to bet we still do.

Many people plan to lose weight, write a will, exercise regularly, and quit smoking.  Often there are disconnects between planning and doing sometimes for good reasons but often not.

If the axiom failing to plan is planning to fail holds true, Nixon’s planning was reasonable and prudent.

Alert Levels and Nuclear Weapon Systems

The Washington Post has an article called Lowering The Alert Levels In U.S. And Russia.  The article is a synopsis of a study entitled Reframing Nuclear De-Alert, Decreasing the operational readiness of U.S. and Russian arsenals.  The study was done by the EastWest Institute who partnered with government agencies of Switzerland and New Zealand to produce the project.  Why the Swiss and New Zealanders?  I guess they were the only ones willing to help foot the bill for the effort.

The study is presented in a sufficiently clinical and balanced manner, however one item in particular stands out, and that is the term “hair-trigger” or “hair-trigger alert.”

Both the WaPo article and the study analogize that due to a variety of safeguards, “hair-trigger nuclear systems” are really more like a gun in a holster with the safety on.

Regarding U.S. ICBMs, a much better analogy would be that of a gun in a safe, with ammunition in another safe.  Oh, and the gun owner’s father alone has the combination to the first safe and only the gun owner’s mother has the combination to the second safe.  In other words, it takes many parties to release a U.S. nuclear weapon.

ICBMs are capable of responding rapidly, but they are far from being on a “hair trigger” alert status. 

The security benefits (except to the arms control industry) to the U.S. of reducing operational readiness are far from evident.

Peace, Nuke Is Thy True Name

David Von Drehle wastes little time in getting to the money line: “As long as a nukeless world remains wishful thinking and pastoral rhetoric, we’ll be all right.”

The persuasive arguement is that industrial-age warfighting has wrought industrial-sized death and destruction on mankind.  But we haven’t had many world wars lately?  What keeps many of today’s conflicts from tipping into massive chaos?

Brace yourself: nuclear weapons.

So far, nuclear weapons have been possessed by rationale nation-state actors and held with sufficient survivability and in sufficient numbers (to prevent the benefits traditionally reaped from suprise).  As such, history correlates decreased death and destruction with the advent of nuclear weapons.

It seems many are more enamored by the idea of a nuclear free world than they are by the observations of history before their existence.

Of course the effects of deterrence are limited.  “Leaders” like Stalin and Mao were still going create death and destruction of an industrial scale, but they did it with their own peoples.

Will the Pentagon Thwart Obama’s Dream of Zero?

Dude, where’s my unicorn?

While nukes are not our future, they are in our future and will be for a very long time.

Nukes will go away when their value is or approaches zero, which will likely mean when they are made obsolete by anti-nuclear methods yet to emerge or are superseded by superior weapons.

Today, people aren’t calling for a world without flaming buckets of oil launched via catapult for the same reasons–it’s just no longer the best way to storm the castle.

Similarly, instead of being made obsolete, nuclear weapons could have their value greatly reduced by affecting the efficacy of their delivery systems, via viable missile and air defense systems.

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who work directly for the President, is not mentioned anywhere in the article, despite the fact he is known to advocate for the Reliable Replacement Weapon, a modernization effort to ensure the viability of our nuclear deterrent. Part of the concept of deterrence is possessing a consequence should deterrence fail. If a U.S. adversary has no fear of the U.S. nuclear enterprise because the weapons won’t work–or because there aren’t any–deterrence is obviously greatly reduced.

For all the purported pushback the President is getting regarding the U.S. going to zero nuclear weapons from “generals in the nuclear chain of command,” only two are mentioned, General Kevin Chilton, the Commander of USSTRATCOM and USAF Chief of Staff Norton Schwartz. Chilton is critiqued for correcting the assertion U.S. nuclear forces are on a “hair trigger,” which those who have experience in the nuclear community know to be untrue. Then, Schwartz is critiqued for agreeing with Chilton. The author suggests these men are somehow disloyal by correcting an error in fact.

The “bolt out of the blue” scenario the author incorrectly characterizes as “launch under attack” is likewise flawed. We have ways of knowing what’s going on well before an adversary gets to the point they would be starting a nuclear war, and it’s called posturing. Tensions would likely take a significant amount of time to reach the point nuclear weapons would be considered and all elements of U.S. power would be put to use to avoid war well before a nuclear attack. Because no rational player wants nuclear war, these parties will be exceedingly reasonable and prudent in taking actions to ensure such a thing doesn’t happen.

In the end, the issue is not nuclear weapons per se, rather the issue is national security. As such, the real question is not “Should the U.S. pursue a zero nuclear weapons cram-down?” but rather “Is our national security best served by a world with no nuclear weapons?”

If the answer is yes, a follow on is “How do all those holding nuclear weapons get rid of them simultaneously?” with the final question being “How do we ensure they never come back?” If the follow on questions can’t be adequately addressed, the goal of a world without nuclear weapons matters not.

As for me, I dream of a world with no cigarettes.

Showdown At Big Sky

Having reached a not-to-exceed measure of largeness, I have decided to run more. By the way, it is hot here in Alabama. I mean Tarzan couldn’t take it, its so hot. Anyway, I’ve retained an old habit, which is to run with music. Running without music is like farming without tractors. Yeah, you can do it, but it is definitely much more difficult.

So the 1987 Robbie Robertson tune Showdown at Big Sky came up on my shuffle (which not only describes my pace, but also my music machine) and as I listened to the words during a cool-down, I realized Showdown really must be considered as a fully qualified Song of Space and Nuclear War. Although the song is now old enough to drink, Robertson sings insightfully of the era’s soon to end Cold War’s threats including the big bang, the weapons race, darkness at high noon, and the fact any moment could be our last. Finally, he opines on our need for strength, wisdom, and morality–makes me think about Iran and North Korea today. I’d say Robbie’s overall tone was one of concern without being overwhelmed or defeated. Check out the lyrics for yourself.

I had ordered Robertson’s CD back in the day when it was new (I had heard Showdown at Big Sky or seen the video, or something and was attracted to it), and I ordered it as a part of my initial buy in the Columbia House Record (not kidding) Club. It was supposed to be in my first delivery lump of 12 or 13 CDs. They all showed up uneventfully, except for one, the Robertson CD, which was inexplicably empty. I never called or wrote to Columbia House–I didn’t think it would do any good–but the empty jewel box haunted me for years (but not enough to buy another copy). Not too long ago, I bought Showdown off iTunes or Amazon. I have a to-buy list but I’m pretty much ‘bought out.’ The only remaining stuff I want is either not digitized or only sold as an “album.” I still have stacks of albums that I bought just to get one song.

Mail In The Nuclear Posture Review?

Tally ho on the reset button? Well, at one level, it may appear so.

Per public law, the purpose of the 2009 Nuclear Posture Review is to establish U.S. nuclear deterrence policy, strategy, and force posture for the next 5 to 10 years. It seems unclear how the NPR’s call for a measured, deliberate, consultative, and “whole of government” approach squares with the President’s proclamation that U.S. nuclear forces will be categorically reduced.

Playlist: Songs of Space and Nuclear War

Less than a year ago–that is, when I first wrote this–in a fascinating juxtaposition of old and new, the world observed the 51st anniversary of Sputnik, the event which marked the dawn of the space age. Almost concurrently, the U.S. Air Force announced that reinvigorating its nuclear enterprise is now its highest priority. What did these two events have in common? Well, practically nothing, other than an opportunity to examine the effects both space and nuclear war have had on our culture, specifically the culture of popular music.

While the most prevalent theme in popular music is without question love, there are, of course, a number of other common musical topics. Space and nuclear war are not among them. However, they are interesting topics indeed and certainly warrant a reasonable exploration. So without further delay, journey with me into the Songs of Space and Nuclear War.

Track 1: “Rocket Man (I Think It’s Going to Be a Long, Long Time),” Elton John, released 1972. Highest Chart position #6, U.S. This melancholy gem, penned by the extraordinary team of Elton John and Bernie Taupin, opens the not-approved-by-Rolling-Stone compilation as the greatest space song of all time. The dreamy, stylized, receding-Doppler effect of Davey Johnstone’s slide guitar, presented as a departing rocket, matched with lyrics like “and all this science I don’t understand; it’s just my job five days a week,” is simply superior. Add the Rocket Man ringtone to your list–it earns five stars (so to speak).

Track 2: “You Dropped A Bomb On Me,” Gap Band, released 1982. Highest chart position #2, Billboard R&B. This is an ostensibly dance-focused somebody-done-somebody-wrong-song, but shows its true colors with clarion lyrics and the familiar whistle of an incoming weapon descending through the atmosphere. In the end, it’s pretty obvious the Gapper’s love lives have been destroyed beyond repair. Perhaps an effective early warning system would have been useful, eh fellas? Three stars.

Track 3: “Satellite of Love,” U2, released 1992. Using the themes of love and betrayal against the backdrop of a televised satellite launch, one-time Velvet Underground front man Lou Reed penned this space sonnet, which was first released in 1972. However, the U2 cover improves the original’s work. U2’s soaring final chorus moves the song from the realm of the ordinary to the superior. Does “Satellite’s gone way up to Mars/Soon it will be filled with parking cars” reveal Bono’s support for planetary missions or is it more analogous to “they paved paradise and put up a parking lot”? Four stars.

Track 4: “Radar Love,” Golden Earring, released 1973. Highest chart position #13, U.S. The Dutch rockers created this much covered and practically ubiquitous hit with its ongoing lyrical theme of wireless messaging. Sonically, the song is made complete with musically superior tempo changes, percussion, and soaring horns. While the title itself implies some sort of forbidden passion at the Clear Air Station, Alaska missile warning site, the title’s slight misnomer is totally forgiven. A true rock classic–five stars.

Track 5: “99 Luftballons,” Nena, released 1983. Highest chart position #2, U.S Billboard Hot 100. Every compilation has to have a throwaway (or two) and this neatly falls into that category. “Blowin’ In The Wind,” it ain’t. This Cold War-era protest effort is most comical in its English language version, which calls to mind the kind of freaky new-wave angst that can only conjured up by a bad trip on Tab cola and cough syrup. Example: “Ride super-high-tech jet fighters/Everyone’s a superhero/Everyone’s a Captain Kirk.” In an insult to Trekkies everywhere, this effort should have been smothered at birth, or alternatively, given to a fifth-grader for rewrite. Two and a half stars for the less-awful German language version (which gets a pass on the lyrics, whatever they are). One star for the more-awful English language version.

Track 6: “Space Oddity,” David Bowie, released 1969. Highest chart position #5, UK. What is it with these English guys? Their country doesn’t even have a manned space program! Released shortly before the Apollo 11 moon landing, Major Tom’s story offers plenty of insight into the risks associated with manned spaceflight and the challenge of a hearing impaired astronaut (“Can you hear me, Major Tom?”). Perhaps Major Tom should have been a part of the Verizon network. Three stars.

Track 7: “Space Truckin’,” Deep Purple, 1972. Released off their superb Machine Head album and recorded near the smoky Lake Geneva shoreline, Space Truckin’ evokes hybrid images of interplanetary travel and surreal R. Crumb “Keep On Truckin’” black-light posters. Few songs known to mankind can drop the nouns Venus, Mars, Milky Way, Borealis, moon shot, and solar system in less than sixty seconds. In addition to the fascinating space images, Purple vocalist Ian Gillan’s awesome pipes provide a superb example of rock craftsmanship. Five stars.

Track 8: “Lost In The Ozone,” Commander Cody and His Lost Planet Airmen, released 1971. This is really a country-fried drinking/love song with a lot of atmospheric and space sounding nomenclature in the title and chorus. Of course, the song’s 1971 release predated GPS, perhaps explaining the band’s misplaced sense of direction, and confirming the need for jam resistant navigation and timing signals. A fusion of western swing, country, blues, and rock, CCAHLPA is most famous for the 1972 quasi-novelty song “Hot Rod Lincoln,” which was released off the same album. Check out the fantastic 1950s space-themed art work on their 1975 studio album Commander Cody and His Lost Planet Airmen. Three and a half stars.

Track 9: “Radioactivity,” Kraftwerk, released 1976. Highest chart position #1, France. Kraftwerk is to electronic music as Isaac Newton is to physics. In this stylized e-sonnet, we learn that Madame Curie discovered radioactivity, that radioactivity is in the air, and that radioactivity is there for you and me. Well, that about covers it, doesn’t it? By the time Kraftwerk remixed the song for a 1991 re-release, the song had assumed a distinctive anti-nuclear power and anti-nuclear weapon pose, so perhaps Kraftwerk will someday run their synthesizers on solar or wind power. Three and a half radiogenic nuclides.

Track 10: “Guns In The Sky,” INXS, 1987. Musically, a reasonable piece of work; lyrically, weak, lame, and lazy. With the belief that rock and roll can really change the world, INXS has a plan to kick the darkness until it bleeds daylight. Let’s see: first, they’re going to stop the world. Next, they’ll let off the fools. Finally, they’ll let them go live with their guns in the sky! OK then, thanks for your help, guys–we’re all squared away. While many of us are familiar with the concept of soft power, INXS’s example is merely flaccid. One and a half stars.

Track 11: “New Frontier,” Donald Fagen, released 1983. Highest chart position, #34, Adult Contemporary. Displaying the slick trademark studio sound made famous with Walter Becker as the group Steely Dan, Fagan opines on his dad’s bomb shelter and post-apocalyptic life, including a Dr. Strangelove-ish reference to underground living with a woman with the right dynamics for life in the new frontier. Thankfully, the reds haven’t decided to “push the button down,” but if they do, Fagen has provisions and lots of beer. Four mushroom clouds.

Bonus Track: “Fly Me to The Moon,” Frank Sinatra, 1964. Although the song had been first recorded in 1954 and was then titled as “In Other Words,” the decade-later Sinatra cover is the only version that really comes to mind. While Frank is perhaps really crooning about love, you just can’t get away from all the talk about those heavenly bodies. In 1969, the song was played during the Apollo 11 mission. It has also been featured in a number of movies, and was the sing-over for the ending credits of the 2000 Clint Eastwood movie Space Cowboys. Four stars.

So, exactly what can we learn from these songs and what do they really mean? Well, that depends. Space itself has been inspiring man for thousands of years, and war has invoked trepidation for just as long. In effect, these songs are ideas everyone has written on. Much of the music in the Songs of Space and Nuclear War compilation calls out allegorically complimentary ideas, with inspirational love leading the way. Conversely, the thematic stimulus associated with nuclear war (where responses range from smarmy dismissal to paranoid schizophrenia) should not be waved off–after all, no one wants to catch an “Atomic Tan.”

Mark Stout is a researcher. This work first appeared in Air University’s The Wright Stuff.